(New York, November 27, 2025) — Climate change and mismanagement are converging to push Iran’s water system past its limits with potentially catastrophic impacts, Climate Rights International said today. On November 6, President Masoud Pezeshkian warned that Tehran could face devastating shortages if rains continue to fail, a level of urgency rarely voiced by Iranian authorities, stating, “If it doesn’t rain in Tehran by late November, we’ll have to ration water. And if it still doesn’t rain, we’ll have to evacuate Tehran.”

The lack of rain this year follows five previous years of drought as rising temperatures have intensified evaporation across key watersheds. A recent peer-reviewed attribution study concluded that human-induced climate change substantially increased the likelihood and severity of the five-year drought affecting Iran.

“When a president publicly warns that millions of people may need to evacuate their capital, it reflects a collapse of the systems meant to protect them,” said Felix Horne, Senior Expert at Climate Rights International. “Iran’s climate emergency is colliding with years of water mismanagement, creating a crisis that threatens public health, safety, and fundamental rights.”

Climate change is accelerating the collapse of Iran’s water systems during one of its driest years in decades. Early-season snowpack in the Alborz mountains—Tehran’s most important natural water reservoir—has fallen to some of the lowest levels recorded in decades. The five key reservoirs supplying the capital now contain less than one-third of the volume needed for a typical year, with the Latyan Dam only about 9% full. At least 19 major dams across the country are at or near total depletion. As of mid-November, only 1.1mm of rain had fallen in Tehran this year, a decrease of 95%.

The effects of climate change are falling on a system already weakened by decades of unsustainable water policy. A major driver of water depletion is the long-standing emphasis on irrigated agriculture, which consumes nearly 90 percent of Iran’s water despite making up just over 10% of GDP. Government policies encourage water-intensive crop production—even in extremely dry areas—leaving many regions with critically damaged aquifers.

“These long-running policy failures have left Iran deeply vulnerable,” Horne said. “Climate change is now accelerating that vulnerability into a nationwide emergency.”

In recent months, Iranian officials have floated several technical fixes to address the crisis, including expanded cloud-seeding operations and large-scale desalination plants on the Persian Gulf to pipe water hundreds of kilometers inland—an approach which would use enormous quantities of dirty energy to run the plants and transport water hundreds of kilometers. These high-profile interventions risk diverting attention from the urgent need for structural reforms, including modernizing irrigation, regulating groundwater extraction, and overhauling agricultural policies.

Although the current crisis has not yet sparked widespread demonstrations, the past five years have seen protests in water-stressed provinces where communities demanded fair water distribution and action on dwindling water supplies. International organizations documented excessive force by security forces at these protests, including the killing of at least nine people in Khuzestan and widespread arrests of protesters in Isfahan in 2021.

These patterns of repression occur in a context where environmental activism and independent reporting are tightly restricted. Researchers, journalists, and civil society groups face surveillance or arrest for working on issues deemed sensitive to the government.

Iran’s lack of response to the crisis falls short of its obligations under the International Covenant on Economic, Social and Cultural Rights (ICESCR), which protects the human right to water. United Nations bodies have repeatedly stressed that states must safeguard access to safe and sufficient water, manage resources sustainably, and ensure communities can participate in decisions that affect their water security—especially as climate impacts intensify.

Iran’s fossil-fuel emissions are further intensifying climate change. Iran is the 3rd largest producer of natural gas globally, and the 7^th largest crude oil producer. Iran is the 3rd largest producer of methane, a particularly potent greenhouse gas, due to its high level of flaring and aging fossil fuel infrastructure, driving additional warming in a region already on the brink. Satellite observations identify Iran as one of the Middle East’s largest methane super-emitters.

While discussions about relocating the capital remain preliminary, any such project would carry enormous financial, environmental, and human right risks. Without transparency, community participation, and rights protections, relocation could deepen the crisis, especially for low-income and informal-settlement residents already living with severe water insecurity.

“Iran is not just confronting a water shortage—it is facing a systemic failure to protect people from climate harm,” Horne said. “Unless the government acts with urgency, transparency, and respect for rights, millions could lose access to the most basic conditions for life.”